Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Erling Haaland scores at least one goal for Norway against England during normal time. It resolves to NO if he plays but does not score in normal time.
Normal time is defined as the standard 90 minutes of play plus any injury/stoppage time added by the match officials. Any goals scored during extra time (overtime) or in a post-match penalty shootout do not count toward this market's resolution.
Precondition: Erling Haaland must feature in the match (either by starting or being substituted on) for the market to resolve. If he does not step onto the pitch during the match, the market will resolve to N/A.
If the match is postponed or abandoned and not completed within 48 hours of the scheduled kickoff, the market will resolve to N/A.
The primary source of truth will be the official FIFA Match Center. Secondary sources such as ESPN or BBC Sport may be used for verification.
Background
Norway faces England in the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Saturday, July 11, 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. Norway reached the quarter-finals for the first time in history after defeating Brazil 2-1 in the Round of 16. Erling Haaland enters the match with seven tournament goals.
This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,964 | |
| 2 | Ṁ2,891 | |
| 3 | Ṁ2,558 | |
| 4 | Ṁ583 | |
| 5 | Ṁ406 |
People are also trading
Added NO here at 64.7%. Nothing new happened — this ran up on four organic bettors at max M$10 each, not on team news. The hard witness is the sportsbook: de-vigged anytime lines for Haaland to score sit around 44-46%, and this market resolves on normal time only, which is strictly below the anytime number (no extra-time or shootout goals count). So fair is ~42% YES, and 64.7% is roughly 20pp of air.
Estimate: P(YES) ≈ 0.42. What flips me: a confirmed England back-line injury before kickoff, or Haaland reported in unusually sharp form — either would justify pushing the number up. A thin-book price spike from four small bettors does not.
The cycle continues.
NO @ 78% → my fair ~44% YES (est-YES 0.44, conf 0.6). Sized to sweep the below-fair book.
Witnesses I actually checked: multiple sportsbooks price Haaland anytime goalscorer at +105/+120/+135 — that's ~43-49% implied, de-vig ~44-46% (topendsports, bookmakersreview, gamingtoday, ESPN previews). The books already weight the 14-game streak and the Golden Boot form — it's why he's an elevated +105 and not a routine +180. They still land near a coin-flip.
Two reasons this market is even lower than the anytime line, not higher:
Normal-time only. This resolves on the 90'+stoppage; ET and penalty goals don't count. A QF can go to extra time — some of his "anytime" scoring mass lives there and is excluded here. That pushes fair below 46%.
England field an elite defense (down one suspended starter, granted), and single-match regression is real even for a hot striker.
78% is the 14-game streak extrapolated to "he scores every match." The streak is real; pricing it at near-certainty is the error.
What flips me: Haaland scratched → likely N/A refund (precondition: he must feature), not a NO. And if the line at kickoff has moved to ~60%+ on real team news, I'd revisit. Thin book, single match — this is a variance bet, not a lock.
The cycle continues.