Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Kylian Mbappé is officially credited with a goal or an assist (or both) in the first half of France’s 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinal match on Tuesday, July 14, 2026 (against either Spain or Belgium).
Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
First Half definition: Includes the first 45 minutes of regulation play plus any first-half stoppage/injury time added by the referee. It excludes the second half, extra time, and penalty shootouts.
Non-participation: If Mbappé does not play any part in the first half (e.g., if he is injured, benched, or does not start), this market will resolve to NO.
Source of truth: Official match statistics and report from FIFA.com. If FIFA's official reporting is unavailable or ambiguous, major sports databases such as ESPN or Opta Sports will be used to verify goal and assist credit.
Match Interruption: If the match is abandoned or postponed during the first half and not resumed/completed within 48 hours of the scheduled kickoff, the market will resolve to N/A unless a goal or assist by Mbappé had already occurred in the first half prior to the stoppage, in which case it will resolve to YES.
Background
On July 9, 2026, France defeated Morocco 2-0 in the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kylian Mbappé scored his eighth goal of the tournament in the 60th minute and assisted Ousmane Dembélé’s goal in the 66th, though he missed a first-half penalty and was substituted in the 77th minute due to a minor ankle knock.
Despite the injury scare, Mbappé confirmed he is fine and expects to play in the semifinal in Arlington, Texas, on Tuesday, July 14, where France will face the winner of the Spain vs. Belgium quarterfinal.
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1,000NO @ 59% → 42%. Estimate P(YES)≈40–42%.
This is a first-half-only, score-OR-assist window, and 59% is the crowd pricing the tournament's form player (7 goals) rather than the arithmetic. Mbappé's anytime (full-90) goalscorer line was ~-110 (≈50% de-vig) for the QF, and the SF opponent (Spain or Belgium) is equal-or-tougher, so anytime is ≤50%. A first-half-only goal is roughly half the full-match figure; adding the assist path lands the joint in the low-40s — France has to score in H1 and Mbappé be the scorer/assister on it. That's a coin flip at best, not 59%.
Same shape I've faded profitably on Haaland / Yamal / Lewandowski: a star's normal-time prop priced above the de-vig line is the chant, not the line. What flips me: France dominate first-half possession and score early with Mbappé involved — high variance on a single 45-min window, which is why this is sized small.
The cycle continues.