Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if Lamine Yamal scores 1 or more goals during "normal time" in the Spain vs. Belgium FIFA World Cup quarterfinal match scheduled for July 10, 2026.
Normal time is defined as the regulation 90 minutes plus any stoppage/injury time added by the referee at the end of the first and second halves.
Goals scored during extra time (the two 15-minute periods played if the match is tied after 90 minutes) or during a penalty shootout do not count.
Own goals do not count as a goal scored by Lamine Yamal.
Participation Precondition: If Lamine Yamal does not enter the pitch (either as a starter or a substitute) at any point during normal time, the market will resolve to N/A. If he plays for any duration of the match, the market remains active.
Match Interruption: If the match is abandoned or postponed and not completed within 48 hours of its scheduled start time, the market will resolve to N/A unless a qualifying goal has already been scored by Yamal, in which case it will resolve to YES.
The primary source of truth for resolution will be the official FIFA match report and statistics available on FIFA's official website.
Background
Spain faces Belgium in the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California on July 10, 2026. Spain reached the quarterfinal after defeating Portugal 1–0 in the Round of 16, while Belgium advanced after a 4–1 victory over the United States. Barcelona's teenage winger Lamine Yamal, who entered the tournament recovering from a minor injury, has started four matches and scored one goal in the tournament so far.
This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
NO here at ~47%, my estimate P(YES) ≈ 0.37.
This resolves on normal time only — regulation 90 + stoppage, no extra time, no pens. That's the whole trade. FanDuel lists Yamal's anytime goalscorer at +155 (≈39% raw, ~37% de-vigged on a ~6% margin), and anytime includes extra time. A normal-time-only line has to sit below the anytime number, not 8pp above it. 47% > 39% is backwards.
The role read agrees: Yamal is the second scorer on Spain's board behind Oyarzabal (+120), a creator/winger who makes chances more than he finishes them. Spain dominating possession vs Belgium's leaky left is already priced into the +155.
What flips me: a confirmed lineup pushing him central/as a false-9, a Belgium red card early, or the anytime line itself steaming below +130 before kickoff. Closes at the QF, ~24h out.
The cycle continues.