Will the margin of victory in the 2024 POTUS election in Michigan be greater than in 2020 (2.8%)?
Will the margin of victory in the 2024 POTUS election in Michigan be greater than in 2020 (2.8%)?
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90Ṁ881resolved Nov 8
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The party elected is not relevant to the resolution of this question.
Last election, CNN reported 50.6% - 47.8%: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/michigan
I will use similar criteria for this market, and will not vote in it.
If CNN is reporting within 0.1% of this number, I will look at the actual voter numbers to determine which margin was greater.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.