Will the margin of victory in the 2024 POTUS election in Iowa be greater than in 2020? (8.2%)
5
31
แน68แน130
Dec 2
67%
chance
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The party elected is not relevant to the resolution of this question.
Last election, CNN reported 53.1% - 44.9%:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/iowa
I will use similar criteria for this market, and will not vote in it.
If CNN is reporting within 0.1% of this number, I will look at the actual voter numbers to determine which margin was greater.
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