Will the margin of victory in the 2024 POTUS election in Arizona be greater than in 2020 (0.4%)?
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The party elected is not relevant to the resolution of this question.
Last election, CNN reported 49.4% - 49.0%: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/arizona
I will use similar criteria for this market, and will not vote in it.
If CNN is reporting within 0.1% of this number, I will look at the actual voter numbers to determine which margin was greater.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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