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If not then when
https://manifold.markets/ArekStryjski/will-new-polish-government-be-forme?r=QXJla1N0cnlqc2tp

Related https://manifold.markets/MrLuke255/will-law-and-justice-party-pis-win

Will Law and Justice party (PiS) win the majority in Polish parliamentary elections to Sejm in 2023?

20% chance. Results to YES if majority of seats in Sejm will be taken by candidates from PiS electoral comitee lists. Election is planned for October 15th.

Is there any other option than PiS + Konfederacja rulling next year? Realistically speaking of course.

They still maintain a decent lead in the polls. I don’t know the fundamentals deeply, but why is this market expecting a reversal?

@yaboi69 their current polling numbers aren't enough to get majority in Polish parliament (230 PMs) even with the only party that would do a coallition with PIS - Konfederacja. So if the numbers stay the same - either it will be minority government (won't last long) or opposition will rule.

For context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Polish_parliamentary_election

And also if they rule without coalition, right?

But what if they form minority government?