Will Poland be governed by the Law and Justice Party on January 1st 2024
37
243
640
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

This question resolves to YES if on January 1st 2024 the majority coalition of the Polish Sejm includes the Law and Justice Party as a member.

Sep 10, 12:51pm:

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predicted YES

Is there any other option than PiS + Konfederacja rulling next year? Realistically speaking of course.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

They still maintain a decent lead in the polls. I don’t know the fundamentals deeply, but why is this market expecting a reversal?

predicted NO

@yaboi69 their current polling numbers aren't enough to get majority in Polish parliament (230 PMs) even with the only party that would do a coallition with PIS - Konfederacja. So if the numbers stay the same - either it will be minority government (won't last long) or opposition will rule.

predicted YES

And also if they rule without coalition, right?

But what if they form minority government?