Will Trump be Arrested or Indicted by Friday, April 07 2023?
27
267
640
resolved Mar 31
Resolved
YES
  • Can be from any level of government in the US.

  • Must be public information on or before 4/7/2023 at 11:59pm EDT.

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I can justify a “Yes” resolution right now given the rules I put in place.

  1. There is consensus that the grand jury vote is considered an indictment, with other markets already settling based on this. Not to mention news articles calling it an indictment.

  2. The indictment came from Manhattan (a U.S. court).

  3. It is currently public information.

Wait for official unseal or use this announcement?

Leaning towards when unseal is public info

bought Ṁ2 of YES

@Vortex You say ‘public information’; surely that includes a leak (as long as there’s no doubt) even if unsealing comes later.

@NiallWeaver Since nobody in the media is questioning the “leak” I guess I have to side with you there. I’ll keep it open for at least a few hours in case others want to share their view.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

No, never.