Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each specified month if Israel conducts a military attack on Iran before that month. An "attack" is defined as any overt military action by Israeli forces targeting Iranian territory, personnel, or assets. The primary source for resolution will be reputable news outlets such as Reuters, Associated Press, and BBC. If no such attack occurs before a given month, the corresponding option will resolve to "No."

Background

Israel and Iran have a history of hostilities, with notable escalations in recent years. In June 2025, Israel launched a significant military operation targeting Iran's nuclear facilities and military infrastructure, resulting in substantial damage and casualties. (theweek.com) This followed earlier strikes in October 2024, where Israel targeted Iranian missile production capabilities and air defense systems. (en.wikipedia.org) These actions have heightened tensions and led to retaliatory measures from Iran, including missile barrages targeting Israeli cities. (theweek.com)

Considerations

Given the recent history of military engagements between Israel and Iran, the likelihood of future attacks remains a subject of international concern. Traders should monitor ongoing diplomatic developments, military activities, and statements from both nations, as these factors could influence the probability of further Israeli military actions against Iran in the specified timeframes.

• Update 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that for an attack to trigger a YES resolution for a given month, the attack must occur before the start of that month.

For example, an attack on October 10th would mean:

• The October 2025 market resolves NO.

• The November 2025 market resolves YES.