This market resolves to YES if the Israeli government formally applies Israeli sovereignty to the Jordan Valley region of the West Bank by October 31, 2025.

Context: On July 23, 2025, the Knesset passed a non-binding resolution supporting Israel's annexation of the West Bank with a 71-13 vote. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer has reportedly stated that Israel could annex the Jordan Valley without major diplomatic fallout if presented as a response to Western nations recognizing a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly.

Resolution criteria: This market resolves to YES if the Israeli government officially applies Israeli sovereignty to the Jordan Valley through a formal cabinet decision, Knesset legislation, or official declaration by the Prime Minister that is implemented through military orders or other legal mechanisms. It resolves to NO if no such formal annexation occurs by October 31, 2025.

Sources for resolution:

• Israeli Government Press Office: https://www.gpo.gov.il/en

• The Times of Israel: https://www.timesofisrael.com

• Haaretz: https://www.haaretz.com