This market resolves to YES if Israel conducts a confirmed targeted operation (such as an assassination attempt, pager/device detonation, or other covert action) against Hamas leaders in Qatar before December 31, 2025.

Israel has previously conducted operations against Hamas leaders in other countries, including the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024. Israeli officials have made threats regarding Hamas leaders in Qatar, with Defense Minister Israel Katz threatening to assassinate senior Hamas political bureau member Khalil al-Hayya, who is based in Doha.

Resolution criteria:

• Market resolves YES if Israel conducts a confirmed operation targeting Hamas leaders in Qatar before December 31, 2025

• Market resolves NO if no such operation occurs or is confirmed by that date

• Resolution will be based on official statements, credible news reports, or acknowledgment by Israeli officials

Sources: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-has-hamas-hit-list-could-it-assassinate-officials-qatar https://www.outlookindia.com/amp/story/international/what-is-mossad-israeli-intelligence-agency-allegedly-behind-recent-attacks-in-lebanon

Israel has a Hamas 'hit-list.' Could it assassinate officials in Qatar?

Israel has a track record of launching strikes when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in the US