MANIFOLD
Will there be 100 GW of solar power on the Moon before there is 100 GW of solar power in orbit?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ35
2036
35%
chance

Currently Elon plans to focus on orbital power for data centers but it seems much easier to make solar on the moon and set it up there. If all the GPUs are in one building it is far easier to have a fast interconnect. Radiation shielding is far easier on the moon, just pile some regolith on top. Replacing bad GPUs is far easier in a lunar data center than with 1 million different sats. If you make a solar power grid 3 degrees from the lunar pole part would be in the sun at any time so you can have power 24/7 without batteries. A data center on the moon can upgrade the GPUs in a few years without losing all the investment in solar, as sats probably will. If you use a mass driver you need to get all the parts for the sat to the moon first and they have to survive the high Gs of the mass driver. So I think in the end it will make more sense to put the data center on the moon using ISRU solar.

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if we did things based on what made more total logistical sense the world would be very different. some people think that that is what the market means: doing what makes the most aggregate logistical sense. in fact, this kind of market worship is common among rationalists.

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