Will there be >1000 robots on the moon in 2063?
➕
Plus
14
Ṁ391
2063
63%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

What constitutes a robot by your definition? Is it any kind of mechanical actor, controlled by any computer?

1y

@Schwabilismus Physically separate autonomous machines. A mars rover or probe would count as one robot no matter how many gizmos it has. The >1000 threshold implies we’re actually doing industry there, not just exploring.

1y

@JonathanRayJonathanRay: just to be sure: "physically separate" and "autonomous" mean the same thing, right? They still can be steered by humans living in a habitat somewhere?

1y

say you have humans using VR goggles to remotely control droids in the salt mines. I guess those count as robots even if they’re not fully autonomous.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules