Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.
Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme and there will clearly be no future model named GPT-5 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.
However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) or it is implied that there will eventually be a model called GPT-5 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".
Related questions
@JonathanRay human progress in most fields was exponential so far. On the outside vièw it seems likely to take less than 3 years.
@KongoLandwalker the exponential part of the progress seems to all come from paradigm shifts. Within the same paradigm you pick the low hanging fruit first and it gets harder to make progress
@JonathanRay You say that people exponentially explore/invent new paradigms? Should we expect, that the next smartest thing will not be within gpt paradigm at all?
I mean I it takes a lot of work to improve upon GPT4 it'll take them a while to come up with something better enough to be a new product release. You can either throw exponentially increasing amounts of compute at the current paradigm to get small increases in performance, or you can invent a new paradigm but either way it's probably more than 1.7 years from GPT4 to GPT5
A little annoyed that this market did a literal 180 on its resolution criteria a week ago…
I bet exclusively on the clarification that the model would have to be named “GPT-5” and then that was reversed in the market description after the creator has previously clarified the opposite. Not sure why they would do that… @VictorLJZ ?
@benshindel why would you be annoyed by this ? its obvious what the intention of the original market was and with sam altmans comments on possibly naming gpt5 something else it was the obvious move to make. sure you lost mana but imagine how annoying it would be for others if they got gpt5 but with a different name this year and somehow lost in this market
[deleted, I misread]
@benshindel where's the 180 a week ago? The description appears to be consistent with the comments from a month ago.
They seem designed to exclude "GPT-4.5" but to include the next flagship model (IMHO it would be strange if an incremental model that plausibly could have been called GPT-4.5 were called something else, so I'm not too worried about that).
@chrisjbillington hmmm, you know I can no longer see any comments to that effect at this point. I'm not sure if there was something deleted or if the market description itself was changed? But when I placed the bet there seemed to be a consensus that if it was called something other than "GPT-5" it would resolve NO? But it's very possible I was mistaken and am mixing this up with a similar market with a different set of comments, lol
@chrisjbillington I found some tweets saying that they said /by/ early next year in the Stargate article behind the paywall. I don't trust those tweets though. I think it's a summary of a summary of a summary.
@chrisjbillington Ive seen summaries of this saying it includes an early next year timeframe for openais next big ai upgrade https://www.theinformation.com/articles/microsoft-and-openai-plot-100-billion-stargate-ai-supercomputer
but I never actually read the article because paywall so if anyone pays for theinformation and can read the source please let us know