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Solar power reached 10% of power generation in April of 2025. 3 years ahead of when I thought it would happen.

What if it's not by 2030?

@Joshua I think it will reach before 2030. I think it will break 3% this year. There is a rule of thumb that the larger an industry is, the easier it is to scale larger. Thats because the supply chains are all well established, new factories don't need to spend years tuning production. That point is about 5% of the market, which I think will be reached in 2025. The question is how long will it take to break 10% ? The faster it gets to 10%, the faster world will transition.

@VictorGallagher You didn't answer the question

@VictorGallagher But if it doesn't reach 10% by 2030, how will this question resolve?

@Joshua
The results are in. I was betting on 2028.