Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States establishes and maintains effective military control over the Strait of Hormuz by April 1, 2026. Control is defined as the US military being able to ensure safe passage of commercial shipping through the strait without Iranian interference, with US naval forces actively securing the waterway and preventing Iranian attacks on vessels.

Resolution will be determined by:

• Confirmation from official US military statements or Department of Defense announcements

• Sustained resumption of commercial shipping traffic through the strait with US naval escort

• Absence of successful Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the strait for a sustained period (7+ days)

The market resolves NO if Iran maintains effective blockade capabilities or if the US has not achieved the above conditions by April 1, 2026.

Background

Following US-Israel military strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, which killed Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage through the strait and launched retaliatory attacks on vessels. Tanker traffic dropped approximately 70% initially, with over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait, and subsequently dropped to near zero. This disruption affected about 20% of the world's daily oil supply and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas.

President Trump stated he is "thinking about taking over" the Strait of Hormuz so that it remains open. However, US military officials have stated the military is "not ready" to accompany oil ships through the strait. Trump has held off on escort missions, opting instead for strikes against mine-laying vessels, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying the Navy will begin escorting vessels "as soon as it is militarily possible."

Considerations

Navy officials have described the Strait of Hormuz as an Iranian "kill box," with US warships and commercial vessels facing enormous risks. Iran has deployed about a dozen mines in the strait, and Iran has capacity to disrupt shipping via mines, speed boats, submarines, shore-based cruise missiles, and other systems—an effort to counter these would likely take days, weeks, or perhaps months. Iran's new supreme leader has affirmed the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed during the war.

This description was generated by AI.