This market resolves based on whether the U.S. government formally implements the threatened tariffs on the "Greenland Eight" (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, UK, Netherlands, Finland) by the February 1 deadline.
Resolves NO if: At any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on February 1, 2026, the U.S. government begins the actual implementation or collection of any new, additional, or "stacked" tariffs (at any percentage) specifically targeting the named European countries in connection with the Greenland dispute.
Resolves YES if: The deadline of 11:59 PM ET on February 1, 2026, passes without the aforementioned tariffs being implemented. This includes scenarios where the tariffs are formally canceled, delayed, or if the administration simply takes no action to codify the social media threats into law.
Resolution Rules:
"Concept vs. Reality": Trump's January 21st "concept of a deal" tweet does not resolve this market. Resolution depends on the status of the tariffs on the deadline date.
Implementation Definition: Implementation is defined as the issuance of a Presidential Proclamation, an Executive Order, or official CBP (Customs and Border Protection) guidance directing the collection of these duties.
Source: Resolution will be verified by the Federal Register or reports from at least two major financial outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, CNBC).
1,000If the criteria are unclear, feel free to tag me and I'll try to clarify it quickly. I'm also open to placing limit orders since the liquidity is low.