Will I gain a new close friend within 5 years?
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17
Ṁ757
2029
68%
chance

"Close friend" is defined as someone for whom:

  • Both of us feel comfortable sharing intimate secrets with each other.

  • Both of us feel comfortable asking each other for non-trivial favors.

  • Since market creation, there was a period of at least 1 year during which we spent time together at least once a month.

  • If the relationship is sexual it still counts, but ofc it can be platonic.

Currently I have two people that meet these criteria.
Feel free to ask any relevant questions about me.
I will not trade in this market.

Related: https://manifold.markets/VanessaKosoy/will-i-have-a-new-serious-relations

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Gaming this market by buying yes and then working hard to befriend you

(Then run away with the mana once it settles)

LOL, where do you live?

Apparently quite near you, in southern Tel Aviv

@ShakedKoplewitz Vanessa Kosoy is a HERO, do BEFRIEND her

Empirically how often have you made new close friends in the last 10-20 years? And are there any recent lifestyle changes that would affect the frequency with which you meet new people?

In the last 15 years, there are the aforementioned 2 and ~3 marginal cases. But all of these happened after my divorce (6 years ago).

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