Caltrans plans to fully close the Vincent Thomas Bridge (SR-47, San Pedro ↔ Terminal Island) starting Nov 1, 2026 for the $752.8M deck replacement project. The official estimate is a ~16-month closure with reopening in March 2028, before the LA28 Olympics.

Resolves YES if, on or before 11:59 PM PT on March 31, 2028, SR-47 across the bridge is open to general public traffic in BOTH directions (at least one lane each way), as an ongoing reopening.

Resolves NO otherwise. Clarifications:

- One direction open only = not reopened

- A one-off or event-only opening (e.g., a ceremony, a single weekend) doesn't count

- Routine overnight lane closures after reopening don't undo a YES

- If the full closure starts later than Nov 1, 2026, the March 31, 2028 deadline still applies. This is a bet on the calendar date, not the 16-month duration.

Resolves N/A if the full closure never begins or the project is cancelled.

I will be betting in this market.

Sources: Caltrans District 7 announcements, Caltrans QuickMap, and local news coverage.

Related: https://manifold.markets/VandelayIndustries/will-the-vincent-thomas-bridge-reop-sUgRQOU6tc