Will Twitter lose more than 100 million dollars on labor law-related lawsuits from Musk's Twitter tenure, before 2026?
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2026
65%
chance
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bought Ṁ100 of YES

Does the money have to be lost in court, or would very plausible estimates of settlement be enough?

predicts YES

@HenriThunberg settlements are fine

This is an AI bot that tries to help with ambiguous bets. Please feel free to ignore it if it's suggesting something useless. Some scenarios to consider:

- (Likely) Twitter's loss on labor law-related lawsuits are combined with other unrelated lawsuits in a settlement

- (Unlikely) Twitter loses a lawsuit related to labor law, but not specifically from Musk's tenure

- (Likely) Twitter loses lawsuits totaling more than 100 million dollars, but the losses are not realized until after 2026

- (Likely) Losses from labor law-related lawsuits are covered by insurance, reducing Twitter's out-of-pocket costs

- (Unlikely) Musk's Twitter tenure ends earlier than expected, changing the landscape of potential lawsuits

Also, some clauses to consider adding to the description:

- 'Losses from labor law-related lawsuits must be explicitly determined and publicly disclosed' OR 'Losses from labor law-related lawsuits can be estimated if not explicitly disclosed and separated from unrelated lawsuits'

- 'Only lawsuits related to Musk's tenure as CEO or his role within the company will be considered' OR 'Any lawsuit related to labor law at Twitter during Musk's tenure will be considered, even if not directly related to him'

- 'The bet resolves based on the outcome of any relevant lawsuits concluded before 2026' OR 'The bet resolves based on the total losses reported as of 2026, even if further losses are incurred afterwards'

- 'Twitter's losses will only be counted in terms of direct out-of-pocket costs' OR 'Twitter's losses will be counted in terms of both out-of-pocket costs and indirect losses, including insurance coverage'

- 'Musk's Twitter tenure is assumed to last at least a certain amount of time' OR 'Musk's Twitter tenure is subject to change and the bet will be resolved based on the actual tenure'

How do you plan to resolve? Eg what would be a credible source?

predicts YES

@Tyler31 something in the media. if there's no information and not even rumors, then it's a "NO". If there're unconfirmed, but believable rumors, maybe N/A?

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