Resolves as YES, if there’re more than 4 different companies providing general chat experience without major limitations with more than 10 million monthly active users in December 2023**. There should be a free tier allowing more than 10 chats, 50 questions a day, and available without the "waiting room" at least 16 hours a day on average.

**EDIT: We'll use "monthly visits". Yes, this is a major change to the conditions. But it seemed fair. I accept and will consider any objections. See https://manifold.markets/ValentinGolev/will-there-be-more-than-4-major-ana#OQV9s1bDjiMxj4zArZmp

I will use https://www.similarweb.com/ for traffic estimates.

Benchmark for “general chat experience” is ChatGPT as it currently is (it was 3.5 at the time of the market opening), example of “Major limitations” is Bing Chat’s “five questions per session” limitation.

Current tally/examples:

• ChatGPT: generally available for free, counts

• Poe: includes powerful models, generally available for free, counts (we're counting "companies providing access", so free gpt-3.5 through Poe is fine)

• LLAMA & analogues: not powerful enough

• Claude: included in Poe, but doesn't count separately as it's not generally available by itself

• Character.ai: generally available. if someone shows me something that reasonably argues that it's close in power to ChatGPT-3.5, i'll consider it. doesn't count yet

• Bard: I will continue to consider restriction to americans-only as a "major limitation", and I hope one day it'll go without saying. doesn't count

• Bing AI: every time I try bing ai, it refuses to help and is annoying in many ways. this IMO is a major limitation. I was lucky to try bing chat when it was more helpful but it won't count anymore. (feel free to show me something that proves that it's changed). doesn't count

• LLaMA 2: someone should show me that someone serves it for free for the general audience, or that the "powerful" version in question (70B?) can run at least on my very good laptop (M2 Pro) with the speed that still feels like a chat experience. otherwise it's a "no"

• Pi.ai I think is a "yes", unless benchmarks prove otherwise, and if it survives as a free, generally available tool in december 2023, and gets some users. ( https://www.similarweb.com/website/pi.ai/#overview says 143k visits... too low)

so there's 2 actual, 1 questionable, and 2 potentially but not actually available