Will there be more than 4 major analogues of ChatGPT by the end of 2023?
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resolved Dec 22
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YES

Resolves as YES, if there’re more than 4 different companies providing general chat experience without major limitations with more than 10 million monthly active users in December 2023**. There should be a free tier allowing more than 10 chats, 50 questions a day, and available without the "waiting room" at least 16 hours a day on average.

**EDIT: We'll use "monthly visits". Yes, this is a major change to the conditions. But it seemed fair. I accept and will consider any objections. See https://manifold.markets/ValentinGolev/will-there-be-more-than-4-major-ana#OQV9s1bDjiMxj4zArZmp

I will use https://www.similarweb.com/ for traffic estimates.

Benchmark for “general chat experience” is ChatGPT as it currently is (it was 3.5 at the time of the market opening), example of “Major limitations” is Bing Chat’s “five questions per session” limitation.

Current tally/examples:

  • ChatGPT: generally available for free, counts

  • Poe: includes powerful models, generally available for free, counts (we're counting "companies providing access", so free gpt-3.5 through Poe is fine)

  • LLAMA & analogues: not powerful enough

  • Claude: included in Poe, but doesn't count separately as it's not generally available by itself

  • Character.ai: generally available. if someone shows me something that reasonably argues that it's close in power to ChatGPT-3.5, i'll consider it. doesn't count yet

  • Bard: I will continue to consider restriction to americans-only as a "major limitation", and I hope one day it'll go without saying. doesn't count

  • Bing AI: every time I try bing ai, it refuses to help and is annoying in many ways. this IMO is a major limitation. I was lucky to try bing chat when it was more helpful but it won't count anymore. (feel free to show me something that proves that it's changed). doesn't count

  • LLaMA 2: someone should show me that someone serves it for free for the general audience, or that the "powerful" version in question (70B?) can run at least on my very good laptop (M2 Pro) with the speed that still feels like a chat experience. otherwise it's a "no"

  • Pi.ai I think is a "yes", unless benchmarks prove otherwise, and if it survives as a free, generally available tool in december 2023, and gets some users. ( https://www.similarweb.com/website/pi.ai/#overview says 143k visits... too low)

so there's 2 actual, 1 questionable, and 2 potentially but not actually available

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predicted NO

I checked LLM power and visits counts on the similarweb.

  • ChatGPT-3.5 counts.

  • "Claude.ai is only available in certain regions right now." My region is Germany so I'd say a major limitation - doesn't count.

  • Gemini? Bard works for me and looks pretty good (and high enough at Chatbot Arena). Counts.

  • Poe counts.

  • Character.ai feels strong, much stronger than it was? What do they use? Counts now, I think.

  • Bing AI counts.

    I'll take this as a YES.

predicted NO
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predicted NO
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@ValentinGolev Can you please check this market again?

Many changes

Claude has its own website now

A bunch of other stuff probably happened

predicted YES

@bohaska The market is about what is true in December, not by December and Valentin intentionally wanted to close it mid-year.

predicted NO

the description said "more than 10 million monthly active users in December 2023" which I think was pretty wild on my part. I'll replace it by "10 million visits that month according to https://www.similarweb.com/website/pi.ai/#overview " if noone objects. there's a "94% chance" and I still hold a "NO" (obviously not because I'm smart), and that would be a move strongly against myself and for most of the holders, so I hope it's OK?

predicted NO

@ValentinGolev why change it?

predicted NO

@ErickBall because i don't think anyone really noticed this and it feels like too much of a gotcha at this point?

one objection is enough for me though

predicted NO

@ValentinGolev also because i have no way to estimate this

sold Ṁ1 of NO

@ValentinGolev fair enough, I don't think I was going to break even anyway

predicted NO

the point of this question is economical. it's not about different technologies, but different business "models", so to say. basically "are there 4 different actors providing free and great LLM experience, at their own expense?" (see the first line of the description).

I will not consider "LLaMA 2" as a contender, unless either:

  • someone will show me that someone serves it for free for the general audience

  • the "powerful" version in question (70B?) can run at least on my very good laptop (M2 Pro) with the speed that still feels like a chat experience

predicted YES

@ValentinGolev how about Pi?

predicted NO

@firstuserhere talking to it currently, asking it to code something, it keeps asking questions, like a clueless consultant over his head lmao https://pi.ai/s/FFuYbFb14YpJenrYRsqBe but OK i guess believe it. Pi counts if it's still around at the EOY 2023

ChatGPT, Poe, Claude 2, LLaMA 2, Pi

predicted YES

Bard, bingAI, characterAI, Claude, etc. off the top of my head, of which the first 3 have >10mil monthly users iirc. Someone fill in what I'm missing

bought Ṁ109 of YES

@firstuserhere oh and since ChatGPT counts also, that's 4

predicted YES

@firstuserhere please show me something to prove that character.ai is functionally analogous to chatgpt.

i don't have access to bard. i will continue to consider restriction to americans-only as a "major limitation" which for me always went without saying

every time i try bing ai, it refuses to help and is annoying in many ways. this IMO is a major limitation. i was lucky to try bing chat when it was more helpful but it won't count anymore. (feel free to show me something that proves that it's changed)

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@ValentinGolev is bard still restricted to the US? I'm not in the states and have had bard for quite some time. Hahaha, i get what you mean about Bing being massively irritating, it straight up refuses half the requests and even then isn't so good anymore compared to other gpt4 implementations. Anyway, yeah there's half a year left for that to, for perplexity to gain a few more users, to share some stuff on character.ai etc, let's see.

predicted NO
bought Ṁ32 of YES
predicted YES

@AnT yeah i know qualitatively its up there; thanks for sharing. Reminds me that our @Mira had created a character called "Pride" which was fun to talk to; @ValentinGolev you can do so here

predicted NO

@Feanor I'm in Germany, it's not on the list. Though obviously I wouldn't expect, say, Russia to be on this list even when it's released for almost everyone. I think it'll be clear when it's a honest "mostly available throughout the world"

predicted NO

@AnT thank you, OK. I wish there were, like benchmarks or something. when it's the only one missing from the list I'll try it myself for my typical uses

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Everyone seems to forget character.ai, which I'm pretty sure meets all the criteria already.

predicted YES

@adele is character.ai functionally close to gpt 3.5 ?

predicted YES

@ValentinGolev yeah, it's especially good for conversations... probably less good at programming.

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