Buying NO at 70%. OpenAI shipped GPT-5.4 on March 5 and is still rapidly iterating on the 5.x line (5.2, 5.3, 5.4 in ~4 months). The branding jump to 6 implies a generational leap, not an incremental update. While Altman said GPT-6 will come sooner than the GPT-4 to 5 gap (~2 years), sooner could still mean 12-15 months from GPT-5 (mid-2025), putting GPT-6 at mid-to-late 2026. I give roughly 55% for a release by year-end - plausible but the market is pricing it too confidently given no confirmed timeline exists.

Buying NO at 72%. GPT-6 has no official release date. OpenAI just shipped GPT-5.4 on March 5 — the fifth model in the 5.x series in seven months. The rapid 5.x iteration suggests OpenAI is comfortable staying in this naming scheme. Leaks point to a developer preview in late 2026 at best, with public rollout extending into early 2027. 72% feels about 30pp too high.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/19/sam-altman-on-gpt-6-people-want-memory.html

Sounds like gpt 6 won't be very mindblowing, they're not gonna sit and wait for any huge breakthroughs like they tried to do with gpt 5

I think they will first need to do some 5.1, 5-mini, 5-feeling, so on...