Will the proportion of Americans who agree with the statement "Someone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth" (as opposed to "Whether someone is a man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth") return to 2022 levels (which was 39% agreement) or higher at any point prior to the beginning of 2030, according to Pew's surveys?

Prior surveys results have been: 45% (2017), 41% (2021), 39% (2022), 34% (2024). If any survey done between the 2024 survey and the beginning of 2030 ask this question and have results of at least 39%, this will resolve Yes. If all such surveys have rates lower than 39%, this will resolve No. If for whatever reason no such surveys are conducted, this will resolve N/A.

I will not bet on this market.