(Round 2) Will any single trader be able to make M$100 buy buying and selling in this market?
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Ṁ20kresolved Jun 18
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Copy of https://manifold.markets/Undox/will-any-single-trader-be-able-to-m, because it seemed to be fun.
The profit is calculated as
Σ(money collected by selling bets) - Σ(money spent on bets)
Any "holdings" of YES/NO do not count towards this. This means the profit reported in on the page is ignored, as this is unrealized profit.
Will use the values on the page, which are rounded, to do the calculation. So under the hood you may have made 99.9 profit, but if it says 100 when I add it up on the site it is 100.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Here is a spreadsheet with all the bets https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fxqXu1Akicxju1vcuyL22ZpZd-uSGTb14zZvImCjgW8/edit?usp=sharing
On row 109 BTE sells his 940 No shares for M$250 and bringing the price from 98 to 6
0.23 seconds later, it says he redeemed 0 Yes shares and 0 No shares from the liquidity pool for M$0? No idea.
13s later MattP sold his No shares, bringing the price to 21
15s later I bought my Yes shares, bringing the price to 97
People who had liquidity at some point: MattP, BTE and Gurkenglas
On line 101, I think BTE put money into the liquidity pool and somehow got given M$26.8 of No? I thought you only got shares in your account when you withdrew from the liquidity pool? And then 0.4s later he redeemed 0 Yes shares and 0 No shares for M$0, same as above.
That was all of BTE's liquidity pool interactions.
@ahalekelly LOL I sold my 22 of NO, I think that is why. Pushing the prob in your favour. Well done!
I calculate @MattP has made 137 so will resolve YES soon. I just want to give a bit of time for anyone in the NO camp to check and tell me if I have it wrong. If I hear nothing I will resolve.
@Undox Agree that Matt is over 100. I think you miscounted (even accounting for rounding) because on his bets page I see profit of 149 with 1 remaining share of YES, but certainly north of 100.
@jfjurchen that profit number isn't necessarily super reliable, it gets confused with liquidity shenanigans especially. I think the criteria Undox is using is just adding together all transactions in the betting log, which seems more foolproof now that liquidity withdrawal shows up correctly-ish.
@ahalekelly what causes the displayed profit and the totted up profit to be different in this case, do you know?
@MattP Rounding error is my guess, the bet log rounds each bet and the profile page rounds the total?
@MattP Hm, did you not engage in any liquidity shenanigans? Just looking at your "bets" page, I see the same thing - summing the bets gives 136, but it shows 149 profit. Suspiciously, it also says "12 YES shares and 12 NO shares automatically redeemed for M$12." - M$12 is about the size of the non-rounding discrepancy.
@jfjurchen I did a few liquidity shenanigans, in the sense that I injected and immediately removed once or twice to buy shares without moving the probability.
@Undox my count is M$136, so that jives (I bought M$1 of YES probably around when you made that count).
@BTE odd. I stopped for gas and just happened to check this market. Saw that it was near 0% and sold my NO. Wondering if it was in close enough proximity to your trade to somehow mess something up, though that would be pretty surprising.