How many more coups and/or attempts will there be before the end of the year? (2024)
6
100Ṁ163
resolved Oct 21
Resolved
YES
1+
Resolved
YES
2+
Resolved
YES
3+
Resolved
YES
4+
Resolved
NO
0
Resolved
NO
5+

Only counting coup attempts after Sept 4th 2024

I will be using the 2024 section of the English Wikipedia to resolve this question. Articles with the word 'Allegations' in the title will not be considered as an attempt.

Self coups will also count (disclosure added after South Korea case) and any millitary activity to seize / alter the powers of the government which warrant an article without the term "allegations" in the title.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts#2024

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Events that include the word 'allegations' in sections other than the main description (e.g. in 'caused by' sections) will still be considered as valid coups/attempts if they meet the other criteria.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Only counting coup attempts after Sept 4th 2024

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ6
2Ṁ5
3Ṁ3
4Ṁ2
Sort by:

@creator Resolve boop! 🥹

@mods This one may require some judgement calls. Thoughts?

@Quroe @traders according to the linked wikipedia page, I count 4 coups and manifested attempts:

  • Armenia

  • Tigray

  • South Korea

  • Syria

Serbia, Benin, Kyrgyzstan, and Germany don't count because they were arrested before the attempt.

Resolving.

Resolving for South Korea, see this comment below

" I think ordering the millitary to seize control of the national assembly is pretty valid as a coup attempt. Even if it was ultimately a pathetic attempt. Thank you for the question and I Will resolve accordingly"

@Tymoteusz Can you tell us if the South Korean event that happened recently counts? Currently, the article does include the word "allegations", but it is under the "caused by" section.

I think it would be in the spirit of the market to make an exception to this, but by the word of the description, this might not count as a coup because of this fact.

Disclosure: I hold a NO position on the 0 submarket.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_South_Korean_martial_law?wprov=sfla1

@Quroe I think ordering the millitary to seize control of the national assembly is pretty valid as a coup attempt. Even if it was ultimately a pathetic attempt. Thank you for the question and I Will resolve accordingly

@Tymoteusz I see the market was also created on Sep 4, 2024. I assume that this market only recognizes coups after that date? Or are all 2024 coups recognized?

@Quroe yes the former. After Sept 4th, updated description accordingly

ah @mods i made a mistake here. I looked at the wikipage and saw 'Armenia coup attempt' on the list but the title of the full article involved 'Allegations'. Can My two most recent resolutions be rolled back?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy