
Will Tyler Cowen have a reasonable response to Scott Alexander March 29 Acx post?
2
70Ṁ10resolved Mar 30
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Within a week. Relatively low, subjective bar for reasonable.
I found Tyler's post poor and scott's critique well stated. Will Tyler have a quality response?
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It’s very obvious that timelines match prior estimates:
Mid-2030s human brain on laptop
Mid-2040s silicon flops exceed human
Mid-2050s silicon flops*time exceed human
Clearly it takes a lot of GPUs to even match human language understanding—today.
And no one thinks robotics is showing even hints of higher-order animal ability.
—-
Remains clear things get very dangerous as cost per watt goes down 10x every five years, but “halting GPT-5” or “AI bias” remain neither here nor there on longer-term risks.
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