Will the IARC call Aspartame, Aloe Vera Gel, or Wireless Radiation at least ‘Probably Carcinogenic to Humans’ by 2040?
Will the IARC call Aspartame, Aloe Vera Gel, or Wireless Radiation at least ‘Probably Carcinogenic to Humans’ by 2040?
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This market will resolve "Yes" if the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), a subsidiary of the World Health Organization, officially upgrades the classification of Aspartame (a low-calorie sweetener), Aloe Vera Gel (commonly used in skin care and health products), or Wireless Radiation (emitted by wireless tech gadgets) to 'Probably carcinogenic to humans' (Group 2A) or 'Carcinogenic to humans' (Group 1) by the end of 2040.
Aspartame is currently under evaluation for potential classification "Possibly carcinogenic to humans" (Group 2B), while Aloe Vera Gel and Wireless Radiation have already been classified as such.
If this upgrade does not occur by the specified date, the market will resolve as "No".
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230630-aspartame-what-else-is-possibly-cancerous
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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