Aspartame is currently listed as "possibly carcinogenic” by World Health Organisation/International Agency for Research on Cancer (WHO/IARC) on the basis of results from experimental animals. This designation places the compound in their cancer hazard group 2B.
There are two higher-risk categories:
Group 2A (probably carcinogenic for humans)
Group 1 (carcinogenic for humans)
This market will resolve YES if WHO/IARC places aspartame in either group 2A or group 1 before November 2033. If such designation does not happen, the market resolves NO.
If WHO or IARC ceases to exist or leaves behind the current categorisation, I will resolve on the basis of next best thing, using comparable institutes or a comparable cancer hazard qualification. If these are unavailable to my judgement, I will resolve N/A.
More info on the current hazard qualification can be found via:
https://www.who.int/news/item/14-07-2023-aspartame-hazard-and-risk-assessment-results-released