The market will resolve when Grusch's claims about the U.S. possession of retrieved craft of non-human origin are either definitively confirmed or refuted. The confirmation or refutation must be supported by one or more of the following indicators:
https://thedebrief.org/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-non-human-craft/
1. Definitive Empirical Evidence: Evidence directly supporting or refuting Grusch's claims is presented. This could be physical evidence of the craft, results from material science testing, or sufficiently convincing evidence that Grusch is fabricating his claims.
2. Conclusive Expert Corroboration: Independent experts in the field definitively confirm or refute Grusch's claims with their own knowledge or evidence.
3. Legally Binding Verdict: A legal judgment or verdict conclusively supports or refutes Grusch's claims.
For the market to resolve, the confirmation or refutation must be definitive and widely accepted by credible experts or authorities.
Currently the resolution date is 12/31/2030, but could be adjusted if there is a consensus decision reached prior to that date, or delayed if no consensus is reached by the original resolution date.
Related questions
Here I speculate on what motives there could be for Grusch to be not telling the truth:
1) Shoddy inquiry: maybe pilots did see things and the recordings and radar data were not fabricated, but there was some other explanation for this and Grusch came to the wrong conclusion: this would likely require the conjuction of both separate psychological/sociological explanations (human observations) and technological/physics explanations (radar observations, on-board flight equipment observations and failures). According to Avi Loeb, the government is "incompetent" so I can't discount this.
2) Self-aggrandizement (I have no evidence for this so this, so it is pure speculation)
3) Lying for altruistic purposes: I highlight this as my own speculative, conspiracy theory: that maybe this is all a novel way to manufacture a bipartisan issue large enough to provide enough cover in order to launch a congressional investigation to expose massive corruption in defense spending (corruption was not mentioned explicitly but multiple congressmen did complain during the hearing there is no way for them to track appropriation spending). It would be lying but if you take the position that the ends justify the means it might be seen as altruistic. Simply, there are no UFOs but just people stealing lots of money and he is lying to expose that.
“For decades, many Americans have been fascinated by objects mysterious and unexplained and it’s long past time they get some answers,” Schumer said in a statement. “The American public has a right to learn about technologies of unknown origins, non-human intelligence, and unexplainable phenomena.
“We are not only working to declassify what the government has previously learned about these phenomena but to create a pipeline for future research to be made public,” he added.
Schumer said he is carrying out the legacy of former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who more than a decade ago pushed funding for the Pentagon’s secret Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program.
Interesting development today!
The U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee has responded to claims of secret UFO retrieval and reverse-engineering programs. A provision adopted unanimously would halt funding for such secret efforts. The accompanying Senate's Intelligence bill bolsters whistleblower protections and urges those with information on such activities to come forward.
The legislation goes further than previous laws, proposing to cease funding for any unreported programs analyzing retrieved UFOs. It also calls for any hidden 'non-earth' or 'exotic' craft to be made available for broader scientific and industrial analysis. There are indications that a law enforcement entity is investigating the U.S. government's handling of UFOs.
https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/4067865-congress-doubles-down-on-explosive-claims-of-illegal-ufo-retrieval-programs/
Grusch has made a series of sensational claims regarding UFOs, suggesting Vatican involvement in a cover-up, large UFOs observed by the U.S. military, and a privately stored UFO by an unnamed defense contractor. He also stated that UFOs have shown signs of aggression, including nuclear-site probing, and implied that people may have been killed to preserve these secrets.
Grusch's assertions, if accurate, are undeniably significant. Do these recent claims impact your opinion of Grusch's reliability and the validity of his statements?
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/the-ufo-whistleblower-is-back-with-more-crazy-claims.html
