What psychological mechanism is behind David Grusch's claims?

Question

"Telling the truth" includes being right about NHIs, and also includes him having been misled by the people he spoke to.

"Lying" includes any reason for lying, including the government asking him to, doing it for profit or publicity, etc.

"Delusional" includes any situation where he believes himself to be telling the truth, but the evidence he claims to have seen and heard was not actually experienced by him.

This resolves once there's no more active investigation by the government and there seems to be a consensus. If it's still unclear I'll leave it open for longer until we get a definitive answer.

In the event that it's a mix of the above, I'll pick the one that seems most true. I won't bet.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, He's telling the truth about his experiences, followed by He's lying and He's delusional are most likely. See the market for live updates (31 traders, as of Oct 4, 2025).