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MANIFOLD
Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)
4
Ṁ1kṀ712
2027
26%
chance

Was/is there an ASML EUV in China on June 19th, 2026?

Context: "U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has told senior ASML executives he’s concerned that one of the Dutch chipmaker’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines may have ended up in China. That would be a major breach of export controls that have barred ASML from selling EUV to China since the first Trump administration. [ASML] says no such machine exists in China and has never existed there." -- https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/19/the-us-says-asmls-top-chip-tool-may-be-in-china-asml-says-it-isnt/

This will resolve yes/no depending on whether there is fairly conclusive (>90%) public reporting indicating that there was or was not an ASML EUV machine in China on June 19th, 2026. If there is not conclusive reporting either way, the market will not resolve.

For it to resolve "Yes", it must be possible for the machine to be fully functioning within one year (eg, a permanently broken EUV machine would not qualify).

Market context
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