How many more times will numeric markets be released on Manifold before they stick around?

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Ṁ2026

resolved Sep 30

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1-2

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Manifold has repeatedly released and then removed different implementations of numeric markets. How long do we expect this to keep going on before they settle on a definitive long-term implementation?

Count starts from market-creation, 2024-03-29, at 0. Market resolves when an implementation of numeric markets stays released for at least three consecutive months without being removed from availability-in-the-question-creation-interface. Count increases by 1 each time a numeric-markets-implementation is thusly removed. If the count ends up larger than 5, market will resolve to 5.

(If an implementation is removed only briefly and without-substantial-revision, e.g. disappearing a few hours for urgent bugfixing and then returning mostly-unchanged-aside-from-the-fixed-bug, this won't increase the count or reset the timer; only more substantive removals-and-rereleases will count.)

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bought Ṁ200 YES

@Tulip bump. This market type just got deprecated apperantly, so we are definetely up to 2 yes?

@ScipioFabius ...oh, right. Bleh. I should have closed and resolved this market a month ago, at 1; I sloppily went and forgot about it. Sorry about that.

@Tulip oof, expected this to stay open until next iteration

Numeric markets are gone again. Count-for-purposes-of-this-market plus 1; we're now at 2, assuming I haven't missed any other disappearances-and-reappearances over the past monthish since the pivot made me stop checking the new-market interface as often as I used to.

...wait, was I wrong about this? I feel like I might have actually just failed a spot check; they seem to be around right where I remembered them, now. Count minus 1, back to 1, and next time I'm iterating the count I'm going to take a screenshot to make sure I haven't missed anything.

I've sold all my holdings in this market, and will refrain from buying more, given uncertainty here, in order to avoid personal stake biasing my resolution.

Numeric market creation cost has been raised to 1000 mana, apparently, and they've been relabeled from 'Numeric' to 'Numeric (Experimental)'. As far as I'm aware there was no removal-and-rerelease associated with this relabeling-and-cost-increase, so count remains at 1.

Numeric markets are back; release-count-measured-by-this-market is now at 1. (I'm not sure exactly what changes have been made, but the multi-day disappearance was sufficiently long that I don't think it falls within the only-brief-and-without-substantial-revision exception.)

sold Ṁ73 YES

Numeric markets have been disabled again; if they don't come back approximately-unchanged in the next day or so, count will go up to 1.

I'm waiting until they make it capable of estimating pi

apparently they're on version ~4 already, i dont even know

@strutheo Yeah, I haven't kept track of the historical numbers, that's why I'm doing this market in a pure number-going-forward fashion.

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