The latest the election may be held is 19 December 2026. It's likely the election will be held before that date so this will resolve on the election day. The date will be updated once the election date is announced, likely early 2026.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Christopher Luxon is still serving as the Prime Minister of New Zealand on the day the 2026 general election is held.

The market will resolve to NO if:

• Luxon resigns or is removed as Prime Minister before the 2026 election

• Luxon remains National Party leader but loses a vote of no confidence, causing a change in government

• Luxon is replaced as National Party leader and therefore as Prime Minister

• Any other scenario where someone else is serving as Prime Minister when the 2026 election is held

For clarity, this market is about Luxon's status immediately before the election, not the outcome of the 2026 election itself.

Considerations

Prime ministerial changes between elections are not uncommon in New Zealand politics. Since 2008, there have been instances where Prime Ministers have changed mid-term, including John Key's resignation in 2016 and Jacinda Ardern's resignation in 2023.