One thought: If IMDb changes their ranking algorithm in a big way, so that "as rated by regular users" no longer seems to apply, then I'll have to N/A. But smaller changes in the algorithm are allowed as long as they still seem to preserve the intention of the ranking.

Some reordering has happened. Lord of the Rings movies have moved up. Drama!

6. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

7. Schindler's List

8. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

9. Pulp Fiction

if you like IMDb’s Top 250:

When movies come out, they typically move up and down IMDb’s Top 250. How long does a movie need to be in the Top 10 for it to qualify? Any time at all?

@mattyb Yeah, this is essential. Oppenheimer was 9.1 at the start iirc.

New movies are usually 0.5-1.5 above what their rating will be once everything settles.

(Endgame was 9.3 for a while.)

@JonathanMannhart @Tsunombie

@mattyb Ah, good point. The intention of the market is that it should be more or less stable.

How about: Movies won't be considered "included" on the top-10 list until they are at least one month after their general box office release. Would that do it? Longer, shorter period of time?

Alternately, could say a movie needs to stay on the top-10 list for [a minimum period of time] before it can be considered "included".

But I think I like the first condition better, because it doesn't require us to know when a movie first appeared on the list.

@Tsunombie yes, that’s clear but it changes the market quite a bit.

Still thinking if there's a better way to formulate it. But yeah, I'm more interested in long-term changes to What's Considered Great, and less interested in things that make a short-term good impression but don't hold their place over time.

@JonathanMannhart Very helpful. I'm starting to fully realize the problem. Here are some more examples, starting with yours:

Avengers: Endgame: was in top-10 for days 2-13 after release

Spider-Man: No Way Home: was in top-10 for days 1-10 after release

Dune Part Two: was in top-10 for days 4-9 after release

Inception: was in top-10 for more than two months after release

Toy Story 3: was in top-10 for about 1.5 months after release

But they all fell away. The current top-10 are all old movies.

@Tsunombie I think if the market is intended to capture long-term changes, it would probably need quite a bit of a timing delay for a movie to count.

Inception stabilised at number 14, so that's already pretty close. That implies that 2-3 months is probably a good timeframe?

Agree. Okay, here's what I propose:

Change title from:

"When will IMDb's top 10 films include a different movie (starting 4/2024)?"

to

"When will IMDb's top 10 films stably include a different movie (starting 4/2024)?"

Add to description:

Edit:

The intention of the market is to predict long-term changes to the top-10 list.

It is common for new releases to appear on the top-10 list in a transient way. A new release will only be considered "stably included" on the top-10 list if it is three months past its theatrical release date. This might lead to a delayed resolution for certain time brackets listed on the market; for instance, if a new release appears on the top-10 list on December 31, 2024, then the "2024" time bracket will resolve three months after the film's release, or when the film has dropped out of the top-10, whichever comes first.

By contrast, if an older film (more than 3 months past its release date) breaks into the top-10 list, then the relevant time brackets can resolve immediately to YES.

@Tsunombie you may want to N/A this market and start again. When I bet here, the market had very different rules and description.