Intended to be a companion to this question:
This market resolves based on a celebrity drama involving a video. The video should be at least 30 seconds long and widely circulated by corporate media outlets. The celebrity can be in politics or entertainment or media, but as in the linked market, the baseline of "celebrity" should be a mainstream celebrity with a Wikipedia page.
The celebrity should insist -- loudly, publicly, and repeatedly -- that the video is fake. This will be a bit subjective, but it's not enough for the celebrity to just muse, "Well, you can't prove that's not a deepfake." It must be taking a stand: That's not me! That was faked by my enemies!
Probably right away it will be clear to many or most people that the video is not fake, but the celebrity will claim it anyway, and of course some people will believe the celebrity. And by the end of 2024 I will judge whether the evidence is compelling or not.
Resolves YES if a celebrity takes such a stand, and if the video in question is not compellingly shown to be a deepfake by the end of 2024.
Resolves NO if no such widely-circulated drama takes place this year. It doesn't have to be a Jesse-Smollette-sized drama, but it should be big enough that I hear about it in more than one place.
Also resolves NO if such a drama seems to be taking place, and yet eventually the video is compellingly shown to be a deepfake. Like, the celebrity was right, and it was a deepfake.
1,000
3.00Not a video, but getting close! Mark Robinson:
“I’m not going to get into the minutiae of how somebody manufactured these salacious tabloid lies, but I can tell you this: There’s been over $1 million spent on me through AI by a billionaire’s son who’s bound and determined to destroy me. The things that people can do with the internet now is incredible. But what I can tell you is this: Again, these are not my words.”
https://www.npr.org/2023/05/08/1174132413/people-are-trying-to-claim-real-videos-are-deepfakes-the-courts-are-not-amused
"But the carmaker's lawyers pushed back.
Musk, "like many public figures, is the subject of many 'deepfake' videos and audio recordings that purport to show him saying and doing things he never actually said or did," they wrote in a court filing, going on to describe several fake videos of the billionaire."
...
"In Musk's case, the judge did not buy his lawyers' claims."
Sorry I missed this question! I'm . . . not really sure I can define one. The linked market (which was the inspiration) said the baseline is having a wikipedia page, so that's also what I wrote above. But I think it will have to be done by feel. Borderline cases: A local politician like a town mayor? Probably not -- there should be some kind of national audience. It will be especially hard for me to judge a celebrity from a country other than the US; the more distant the culture, the bigger required celebrity profile.
Not a celebrity claim, but regarding a Kate Middleton video, "some social media users were primed for skepticism. A note...fanned more conspiracy theories over the video’s authenticity. There is no evidence, according to researchers, that the video is a deepfake, and agencies routinely attach such notes to content given to them by third parties."
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/04/world/europe/kate-middleton-video-getty-conspiracy.html