(AGI programmer automation) Will my market comp be <3x a median construction worker in April 2025.
6
130Ṁ356Apr 30
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is about whether next-gen models will be so good I don't have value doing intellectual labor. I'm a skilled programmer working as an AI researcher, see https://thume.ca/
Resolves based on my wages vs BLS numbers regardless of why. Currently >5x and I don't work at my highest cash comp opportunity.
Counts only cash and bonus compensation. If my current job doesn't pay enough I'm allowed to resolve this by asking companies I've worked at before whether they'd hire me back and friends there what they think I'd earn (mainly imagining Jane Street), or getting an offer letter.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2027?
38% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
17% chance
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2025?
6% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
15% chance
Will an AGI resolve this market by 2100?
34% chance
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2030?
65% chance
Will we get AGI before 2034?
76% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
77% chance
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2031?
70% chance
Will we get AGI before 2037?
78% chance