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I didn't see this at the time, but I'm resolving this as yes since Belize was widely reported as suspending diplomatic ties with Israel, including by CNN and Wikipedia.

Axios considers Belize to have done basically the same thing as Bolivia in practice, and Bolivia was the basis for the creation of this market. Another good neutral example. https://www.axios.com/2023/11/16/israel-gaza-war-countries-against-cease-fire-diplomats

I probably should have asked for clarification on what 'cut diplomatic ties' mean here before betting :P. According to this document, there is a difference between severance of diplomatic relations and severance of consular relations. In this sense, there is a significant difference between withdrawing your ambassador vs 'severing diplomatic relations'. Could you provide some clarity on this @Tristan https://prawo.uni.wroc.pl/sites/default/files/students-resources/materials%2019.03.2018_0.pdf

Notice, on the original phrasing of Bolivia's 'severing of ties' on the Nov 1 article it mentions Bolivia severs ties, but several others withdraw envoys - implying again these are different things. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolivia-severs-diplomatic-ties-with-israel-citing-crimes-against-humanity-2023-10-31/

If this poll depended solely on withdrawing ambassadors, then this poll should have been resolved as early as Nov 3 when Honduras withdrew their ambassador.

However, with regards to Belize, it does look like according to Belize foreign minister, their announcement "stops short of formally suspending or revoking relations with israel" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gekq7-iwAOQ

Since diplomacy depends on heavy nuance in phrasing, I personally would lean towards official foreign minister representatives statements on "severing of ties or formally severing of relations"

I think they did not just withdrew their ambassador (like the other countries) but did more (suspended israeli ambassador and consuls, refuse communication with Israel). In practise they did the same thing as Bolivia, but they call it differently (though I might be missing something, I am no diplomacy expert). Their foreign minister in the video said "There will be no diplomatic contact between Belize and Israel through diplomatic channels, but it stops short of formally suspending or revoking relations with Israel".

Notice, on the original phrasing of Bolivia's 'severing of ties' on the Nov 1 article it mentions Bolivia severs ties, but several others withdraw envoys

Same thing for Belize later.

So I think that they did considerably more than Honduras and other countries that just withdrew their envoys, but we need clarification if it counts on the same level as Bolivia or not.

@Weezing ended up withdrawing my stake since cutting diplomatic ties is unclear. I do think there is reasonable arguments on either side - however the phrasing I suppose can lend greater weight towards any interruption of diplomatic ties as 'cutting' does not insist 'severing' must also be true.

While the Belize ambassador does clearly state relations will continue, it's unclear in what form a relation can take place if it's not diplomatic.

Always tough resolving with these markets that depend so heavily on phrasing. I've been burned before, so it's better for me to take funds out, than to risk a full fault :)

@EricBurns yea I also sold most of my position, because it seems like we won't get confirmation one way or the other soon.

@EricBurns I think it's pretty clear that these are two different things. Withdrawing your ambassador is something that countries do regularly in response to diplomatic incidents, and it's usually temporary. It can be done while diplomatic and economic ties continue. It's not the same as truly cutting dimplomatic ties.

@Tristan Belize did cut diplomatic ties: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2023/11/15/belize-latest-cutting-diplomatic-ties-with-israel---joining-these-8-other-countries/?sh=738257dc65ce