Based on Japan National Tourism Organisation statistics, which in turn are based on Ministry of Justice arrivals data.
https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/
These figures do not include arrivals in Japan of permanent residents of Japan or Japanese nationals.
If the JNTO reports that more than 25 million people traveled to Japan in 2023, this market resolves to YES.
Previous years:
2014: 13.4M
2015: 19.7M
2016: 24.0M
2017: 28.6M
2018: 31.1M
2019: 31.8M
2020: 4.1M
2021: 0.2M
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According to the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), more than 17 million visitors arrived in Japan in the first nine months of 2023. Although number of visitors are increasing, it is still really far from 31.8 million visitors back in 2019.
According to Audly Travel, March to May is the most popular time for visiting Japan. This means that the peak time for international tourists to visit Japan has past.
As a result, I don't think there will be more than 25 million international travelers to japan this year.
https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/
https://www.audleytravel.com/us/japan/best-time-to-visit#nov
According to the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO)(https://www.japan.travel/en/travel-directory/statistics/), the total growth rate is decreasing over time especially starting from 2020. The number of international visitors (Jan-Sep) increased from 21,196,584 to 23,468,500(10.7%)comparing 2018 to 2019. But it decreased exaggeratedly from 19,624,803 to 147,400 from 2019 to 2021 (-99.2%)(Jan-July). Although Japan has started to ease border control restrictions for foreign travelers from 11 October 2022, the number of international travelers to Japan in August 2023 was around 2,156,900 which is already from the peak travel time. Therefore, I don't think the cumulative number of international travelers to Japan will exceed 25 Million.
According to the data provided by Japan National Tourism Organisation (https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/), the 2023 YTD accumulation of overseas residents' visits to Japan from January to July is 13,032,855 visits.
And, the number of visitors has increased since Japan relaxed border control from COVID restrictions and reopened the gate for foreign tourists from October 2022.
However, If you look closer at the data, the peak of inbound tourism always happens in July from 2015 to 2019.
The total amount of international travelers will not exceed 25M even if we assume the number of visitors for the 5 months left is the same as the July 2023 (count as 2,320,600).
13,032,855 + 2,320,600*5 = 24,635,855 < 25M
Therefore, I think is unlikely the inbound foreign visitor will exceed 25M by the end of 2023.
@JasmineILingChiu my thinking too but there appears to be more of a pent-up demand rebound than I initially expected so I think this is fairly priced right now
@JasmineILingChiu It could surpass the 25M due to the growing tendency. Japan's falling currency allowed tourists a more affordable vacation in their country (Euronews). They have received 15 million visitors from Jan to Aug this year (JTB Tourism). This year, the number of monthly visitors is growing and getting closer to the same number as in 2019 (Statista). Assuming this year we have a more immediate growth scale like 2019; at the end of 2023, Japan will record 26M international visitors.
Calculations here:
