Market will resolve early in 2027 based on official data from
https://www.trade.gov/i-94-arrivals-program
So far, January preliminary data is out and it shows a 2.6% uptick in arrivals from the middle east.
Iranian arrivals were already down 85% in January. Arrivals from Israel Turkey and UAE were higher.
Flight disruptions will push data in one direction; a desire by citizens to get out of the region could push it in another.
Monthly data will be published via official sources throughout 2026, presumably allowing this market to eventually converge on a fair price. But there could, over time, be additional world events that lead to changes in expectations!
1,000February data is now out and the month saw an 8% fall compared to 2025, leaving the year-to-date figure down 2%.
It's a dichotomous situation where visits from Israel are up 6.9% while almost ever other nation in the region is down (ranging from Lebanon down 1.9% Turkey down 2.3% to Iran down 76%).
Higher fuel prices won't be good for travel figures in general. Destabilisation of the region could see more people keen to leave for the US on whatever visa they can get.