Market will resolve early in 2027 based on official data from

https://www.trade.gov/i-94-arrivals-program

So far, January preliminary data is out and it shows a 2.6% uptick in arrivals from the middle east.

Iranian arrivals were already down 85% in January. Arrivals from Israel Turkey and UAE were higher.

Flight disruptions will push data in one direction; a desire by citizens to get out of the region could push it in another.

Monthly data will be published via official sources throughout 2026, presumably allowing this market to eventually converge on a fair price. But there could, over time, be additional world events that lead to changes in expectations!