no?

@strutheo Probably will end up resolving no, but Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota are yet to vote

@Tripping, are you going to resolve this to NO, or wait until all the primaries have actually happened?

@DanielTilkin usually I wait for the events to actually happen or not, yeah. But I'm willing to resolve early sometimes if mods/admins say they want it to happen.

@Tripping Some markets are resolving early, like https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-asa-hutchinson-win-any-states.

Now he has a good chance to win Colorado, since Trump voter's second choice is most likely him rather than Haley

I think it's possible that Rob doesn't even finish second in any primary or caucus.

@KevinLobLaw nah, he'll finish second in Florida for sure.

@becauseyoudo If he makes it to Florida. Rudy tried to gut it out all the way to FL and couldn’t make it. It would be pretty humiliating to limp to finish second in your home state.

@KevinBlaw relevant market for that:

To confirm, when it says at least one state, that means non-state primaries don't count, right? So a situation like where Mike Bloomberg won American Samoa wouldn't count as a yes.

@PeterWildeford Do you think he’ll pull out of the race before the primaries?

@NicoDelon

@NicoDelon no

@PeterWildeford So you think he won’t win any of the primaries/caucuses?!

@NicoDelon I think he will, but I'm still happy to buy NO at ~15%

when I see my DeSantis shares tanking again

precipitous drop

under 80% is a bit baffling to me; NO bettors think that either
- DeSantis doesn't run (hint: he will), or
- DeSantis runs but fails to win one (1) single state

Here's a page with the 2016 primary results if anyone needs to refresh their memory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

@BrendanFinan 2016 doesn’t seem like a fair comparison to me because it was an open field. Trump is now the former president and none of his primary opponents, DeSantis included, seem willing to take even the most indirect shot at him. I definitely think there’s at least a 1 in 5 shot that DeSantis is so weak that he’s either not a candidate or a non-issue for Trump by the start of primaries.

@Eigenspace It’s also worth noting that even though Trump is a former president, he is also a failed presidential candidate in 2020.

DeSantis is strong, he won't back down
In the primaries, he'll wear the crown
His supporters cheer, his critics frown
Yes, DeSantis will win a state, hands down.