Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ5,726 | |
2 | Ṁ2,966 | |
3 | Ṁ756 | |
4 | Ṁ502 | |
5 | Ṁ470 |
@strutheo Probably will end up resolving no, but Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota are yet to vote
@Tripping, are you going to resolve this to NO, or wait until all the primaries have actually happened?
@DanielTilkin usually I wait for the events to actually happen or not, yeah. But I'm willing to resolve early sometimes if mods/admins say they want it to happen.
@Tripping Some markets are resolving early, like https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-asa-hutchinson-win-any-states.
@becauseyoudo If he makes it to Florida. Rudy tried to gut it out all the way to FL and couldn’t make it. It would be pretty humiliating to limp to finish second in your home state.
under 80% is a bit baffling to me; NO bettors think that either
- DeSantis doesn't run (hint: he will), or
- DeSantis runs but fails to win one (1) single state
Here's a page with the 2016 primary results if anyone needs to refresh their memory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries
@BrendanFinan 2016 doesn’t seem like a fair comparison to me because it was an open field. Trump is now the former president and none of his primary opponents, DeSantis included, seem willing to take even the most indirect shot at him. I definitely think there’s at least a 1 in 5 shot that DeSantis is so weak that he’s either not a candidate or a non-issue for Trump by the start of primaries.
@Eigenspace It’s also worth noting that even though Trump is a former president, he is also a failed presidential candidate in 2020.