Will Ron DeSantis win at least one state in the Republican primaries?

Politics•US Politics•2024 US Presidential Election•2024 Primaries•Ron DeSantis•Can Candidate Win State/s?

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Jul 20

0.4%

chance

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Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.

The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.

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predicts NO

@Tripping, are you going to resolve this to NO, or wait until all the primaries have actually happened?

@DanielTilkin usually I wait for the events to actually happen or not, yeah. But I'm willing to resolve early sometimes if mods/admins say they want it to happen.

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@Tripping Some markets are resolving early, like https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-asa-hutchinson-win-any-states.

bought Ṁ90 of YES

Now he has a good chance to win Colorado, since Trump voter's second choice is most likely him rather than Haley

bought Ṁ50 of NO

I think it's possible that Rob doesn't even finish second in any primary or caucus.

predicts NO

@KevinLobLaw nah, he'll finish second in Florida for sure.

predicts NO

@becauseyoudo If he makes it to Florida. Rudy tried to gut it out all the way to FL and couldn’t make it. It would be pretty humiliating to limp to finish second in your home state.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@KevinBlaw relevant market for that:

predicts NO

To confirm, when it says at least one state, that means non-state primaries don't count, right? So a situation like where Mike Bloomberg won American Samoa wouldn't count as a yes.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

boughtṀ95NO

@PeterWildeford Do you think he’ll pull out of the race before the primaries?

@NicoDelon

bought Ṁ95 of NO

@NicoDelon no

predicts YES

@PeterWildeford So you think he won’t win any of the primaries/caucuses?!

predicts NO

@NicoDelon I think he will, but I'm still happy to buy NO at ~15%

predicts YES

when I see my DeSantis shares tanking again

predicts YES

precipitous drop

bought Ṁ100 of YES

under 80% is a bit baffling to me; NO bettors think that either
- DeSantis doesn't run (hint: he will), or
- DeSantis runs but fails to win one (1) single state

Here's a page with the 2016 primary results if anyone needs to refresh their memory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

predicts NO

@BrendanFinan 2016 doesn’t seem like a fair comparison to me because it was an open field. Trump is now the former president and none of his primary opponents, DeSantis included, seem willing to take even the most indirect shot at him. I definitely think there’s at least a 1 in 5 shot that DeSantis is so weak that he’s either not a candidate or a non-issue for Trump by the start of primaries.

@Eigenspace It’s also worth noting that even though Trump is a former president, he is also a failed presidential candidate in 2020.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

DeSantis is strong, he won't back down
In the primaries, he'll wear the crown
His supporters cheer, his critics frown
Yes, DeSantis will win a state, hands down.