Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.
The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
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To confirm, when it says at least one state, that means non-state primaries don't count, right? So a situation like where Mike Bloomberg won American Samoa wouldn't count as a yes.
under 80% is a bit baffling to me; NO bettors think that either
- DeSantis doesn't run (hint: he will), or
- DeSantis runs but fails to win one (1) single state
Here's a page with the 2016 primary results if anyone needs to refresh their memory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries
@BrendanFinan 2016 doesn’t seem like a fair comparison to me because it was an open field. Trump is now the former president and none of his primary opponents, DeSantis included, seem willing to take even the most indirect shot at him. I definitely think there’s at least a 1 in 5 shot that DeSantis is so weak that he’s either not a candidate or a non-issue for Trump by the start of primaries.
@Eigenspace It’s also worth noting that even though Trump is a former president, he is also a failed presidential candidate in 2020.
DeSantis is strong, he won't back down
In the primaries, he'll wear the crown
His supporters cheer, his critics frown
Yes, DeSantis will win a state, hands down.
