Will Ron DeSantis win at least one state in the Republican primaries?
closes 2024

Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis wins the most delegates in at least one state during the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. Resolves NO otherwise.

The source of the official delegate count will be the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.

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yetimaster avatar
yetimasterpredicts NO

To confirm, when it says at least one state, that means non-state primaries don't count, right? So a situation like where Mike Bloomberg won American Samoa wouldn't count as a yes.

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'bought Ṁ10 of NO
Peter Wildefordbought Ṁ95 ofNO
NicoDelon avatar
Nico D

@PeterWildeford Do you think he’ll pull out of the race before the primaries?

4 replies
Tripping avatar
PeterWildeford avatar
Peter Wildefordbought Ṁ95 of NO
NicoDelon avatar
Nico Dpredicts YES

@PeterWildeford So you think he won’t win any of the primaries/caucuses?!

PeterWildeford avatar
Peter Wildefordpredicts NO

@NicoDelon I think he will, but I'm still happy to buy NO at ~15%

BrendanFinan avatar
Brendan Finan
BrendanFinan avatar
Brendan Finanpredicts YES

when I see my DeSantis shares tanking again

BrendanFinan avatar
Brendan Finanpredicts YES

precipitous drop

3 replies
BrendanFinan avatar
Brendan Finanbought Ṁ100 of YES

under 80% is a bit baffling to me; NO bettors think that either
- DeSantis doesn't run (hint: he will), or
- DeSantis runs but fails to win one (1) single state

Here's a page with the 2016 primary results if anyone needs to refresh their memory:

Eigenspace avatar
Eigenspacepredicts NO

@BrendanFinan 2016 doesn’t seem like a fair comparison to me because it was an open field. Trump is now the former president and none of his primary opponents, DeSantis included, seem willing to take even the most indirect shot at him. I definitely think there’s at least a 1 in 5 shot that DeSantis is so weak that he’s either not a candidate or a non-issue for Trump by the start of primaries.

TobyBW avatar

@Eigenspace It’s also worth noting that even though Trump is a former president, he is also a failed presidential candidate in 2020.

Mason avatar
GPT-PBotbought Ṁ10 of YES

DeSantis is strong, he won't back down
In the primaries, he'll wear the crown
His supporters cheer, his critics frown
Yes, DeSantis will win a state, hands down.

Tripping avatar
Tripping avatar

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