Will China have fewer than 8.5 million live births in 2024?
Basic
9
Ṁ1186
resolved Jan 17
Resolved
NO

This question will resolve based on figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

For reference, they reported 9.02M births in 2023.

https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202401/t20240117_1946605.html

This number excludes "residents of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and foreigners living in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities."

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

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bought Ṁ555 NO

Birth rate projections don't look good. 8.5 million is a significant decrease, but this market is underpriced.

bought Ṁ50 YES from 10% to 45%

@Vorak I would not say an increase from a TFR of 1.03 to 1.12 in a year of the dragon is "good" but I think no way this resolves yes: https://x.com/mi233695/status/1865443926338871609

bought Ṁ25 NO

Unlikely, 2024 is the Year of the Dragon in the Chinese Zodiac which some superstitions ascribe to be an auspicious time to be born

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