This market exists for two main reasons: I think a cumulative-independent approach is the most useful format for markets like this, and I also wanted a market where people could directly compare their predictions about Biden's bid to other modern presidential election results.
A combination of the Federal Election Commission's numbers and Dave Leip's numbers will be used to resolve this market. The Federal Election Commission's numbers will be used for the 2024 election.
Note that if it gets close, the answers that refer to a specific candidate should be taken as not the exact number listed in the answer, but the actual percentage of the popular vote that the candidate got in that election - e.g. the Joe Biden answer should not be taken as 51.31% exactly, but instead as the percentage of the vote total he actually got according to the FEC (81,283,501/158,429,631=~51.305744%) or according to Dave Leip's numbers for elections that predate the FEC reports.
Please ask any questions in the comments if you have any.
1,000
3.00I think I'm being reasonable, the event in question hasn't even happened yet
@JackP Is that based on not resolving this market alone, or other past markets? I think based on the resolution criteria listed and the clarification here, it should wait. It does, unfortunately, become a Manifold interest rate play now, at least on the existing options. I put up some limit orders if you have positions you want to get out of.