Description

After four years of presidential immunity vibes, will The Donald actually hear a judge say “You’re going away for a while” once he’s back to being a regular (extremely loud) citizen? This market is all about that post-presidency court drama .

Resolution Criteria

• Resolves YES if, anytime after January 20, 2029: • A U.S. court formally sentences him to prison or jail time (any length - months, years, life… whatever the menu offers) OR • Sentences him to the death penalty.

• Resolves NO only if he passes away without ever getting such a sentence.

Timeframe
No rush - legal things move at the speed of a very slow golf cart. The market stays open until either he gets the sentence or he shuffles off this mortal coil. (If he’s still around in 2050 with nothing but fines and tweets, it’ll probably go NO.)

Clarifications

• Counts: Any criminal sentence ordering actual imprisonment or death (even if it gets appealed, delayed, or turned into a Netflix special).

• Does not count: Just fines, probation, house arrest, civil lawsuits, or getting yelled at on TV.

• Old cases only count if the sentencing happens after he leaves office.

• If the sentence later gets overturned, pardoned, or magically disappears… it still counts as YES (the court said it once).

• Reason for the sentence? Doesn’t matter. Could be “corruption,” “insider trading,” “too many Big Macs,” whatever as long as it’s a real court sentence to lock-up or lights-out.

Resolution Sources

• Reuters, Associated Press, or other big credible news outlets reporting the sentencing

• Official court records (because screenshots of Truth Social don’t count)

  Resolution Criteria

  Resolves YES if, anytime after January 20, 2029, a U.S. court formally sentences Trump to prison or jail time (any length) or to death. This includes sentences that are later appealed, overturned, or pardoned-the YES resolution is triggered by the initial sentencing itself.

  Resolves NO if Trump dies without receiving such a sentence.

  Does not count: fines, probation, house arrest, civil judgments, or other penalties short of incarceration or capital punishment. Sentences must be imposed by a court after he leaves office on January 20, 2029.

  Resolution sources: Reuters, Associated Press, or other major news outlets reporting the sentencing, or official court records.

  Background

  As of November 2025, Trump had been found guilty of 34 criminal counts and 52 charges were dismissed across four indictments filed in 2023. Trump was sentenced to an unconditional discharge on January 10, 2025 in the New York hush money case—meaning he received a criminal record but no other penalties. On November 26, 2025, the new prosecutor in Georgia dropped all charges, and special counsel Jack Smith announced on November 25, 2024, that he was dropping both his election subversion case and the classified documents case against President-elect Donald Trump. Trump is currently serving his second term as president, which began January 20, 2025.

  Considerations

  The Supreme Court's July 2024 ruling on presidential immunity significantly altered the legal landscape. A former President is entitled to absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority, and presumptive immunity from prosecution for all official acts, but there is no immunity for unofficial acts. This immunity applies only to actions taken while in office, not before or after. Any new prosecutions after Trump leaves office in 2029 would need to focus on conduct that falls outside the scope of official presidential acts.

  This description was generated by AI.