This market tracks whether the US will announce another delay in implementing 25% tariffs on most Canadian imports before March 4, 2025.
Resolution Criteria:
Resolves YES if the US government officially announces a delay or suspension of planned tariffs on Canada on or before March 4, 2025
Resolves NO if no delay is announced and tariffs take effect
Notes:
Cancellation counts as a delay
If tariffs are reduced to a small subset of affected goods, or slashed well below 25%, then this counts as cancellation. I will use my judgement to determine if half or more of the originally planned tariffs apply, based on a combination of rates and categories of items. This will be subjective, so I won't bet on this market.
Update 2025-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Tariff Reduction Threshold:
Threshold Definition: Tariffs reduced on the originally planned goods (excluding energy) to below 12.5% (i.e. less than half of the planned 25%) will be treated as a cancellation and considered as 'well below' the originally planned rate.
Update 2025-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update: Revised Timing & Suspension Criteria
Timing Correction: The focus is now on whether the tariffs take effect. The previous reference to the March 4 deadline for announcing a delay is no longer used.
Effective Tariffs Resolution: If the tariffs take effect—even if they are later paused or cancelled—the outcome will be resolved as NO.
Suspension Requirement for YES: Only a suspension or delay declared before the tariffs take effect will result in a YES resolution.
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>"Suspension Requirement for YES: Only a suspension or delay declared before the tariffs take effect will result in a YES resolution."
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trade-tensions-china-canada-retaliate-us-tariffs-rcna194645
A 25% U.S. tariff on almost all goods imported from Canada and Mexico took effect Tuesday just after midnight,
@TotalVerb Lutnick seemed to indicate that some tariffs are in fact going to move forward but that they might be lower than originally mentioned. Could you provide some indication as to how you would resolve based on a lowered percentage?
@PaperBoy I said "half" in the description and will stick to that. So will consider anything lower than 12.5% on the originally planned goods (i.e. excluding energy) to be well below.
@TotalVerb just some unsoliticed feedback:
just explictly state 12.5% in the criteria.
the question changed from. "...before March 4, 2024", to, "on or before" which is pretty big change given the context of the question and I don't think that change should have been made. "Spirit of the question" has no relevance, the question was before March 4 - you don't change that with this many traders on a question.
@vitamind appreciate the feedback, I was worried about a change in tariff categories to a fraction of the originally planned categories and thus did not want to commit to 12.5% explicitly.
As for the March 4 thing, I agree that this was a mistake. I wanted the question to just be about whether the tariffs take effect rather than specifics about the timing of a delay announcement. If tariffs take effect, even if subsequently paused or cancelled, I'll resolve the question NO. Only a suspension prior to the tariffs being effective will count. Hopefully this aligns with what people have interpreted the question as.
@TotalVerb Will you still let this close in 2 hours, or will you extend it until the end of the day on March 4th?
I think it moderately likely that if a delay occurs, it will be announced on March 4th. Technically if this happens, this question would resolve no as currently worded in the description, because March 4th is not "before March 4th". But it would be a delay, and the spirit of the question seems to be focused on "will there be a delay"?
So: if delays are announced on March 4th, which way does this resolve?
@equinoxhq I will edit it to "on or before March 4" as I feel that is clearly in the spirit of the question
It's still March 4, he just forgot the right date I guess https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/27/us/politics/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china.html
"A White House official said later Wednesday the deadline for Canada and Mexico tariffs remains March 4 and Trump had not yet decided whether to grant another extension. A report on possible reciprocal tariffs is due at the beginning of April, and those duties could hit Canada and Mexico, but are still separate from the import taxes Trump has threatened related to drug trafficking and illegal immigration, the official said."
@makeworld this currently looks to be Trump either misspeaking or not remembering his own policies rather than an official announcement of delay — so I'll hold off for now