Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?
29
1kṀ4260
2031
33%
chance

See this page for information about the competition: https://lab42.global/arcathon/. See also this podcast for an interview with Francois Chollet about the challenge and his predictions: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/francois-chollet

The fundamental characteristics of an "LLM" for the purposes of this question:

  • Sequence-to-sequence type model. (State-space and transformer models would both count, for example.)

  • No substantial post-hoc computation (like tree search). Sampling as it is practiced now is allowed. Prompting as it is practiced now is allowed.

  • I will use my best judgement if it’s ambiguous. The main point is that the model should be in the class of models that LLM-naysayers (Chollet especially) refer to when they assert that LLMs cannot solve ARC narrowly and are off-pathway for AGI generally.

See also:

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