Description:

This market predicts whether I’ll later decide it was worth it to try starting a dog run in my neighborhood.

I live in Arlington, Virginia, near Quincy Park. There are tons of dogs around, but no dog run within walking distance. The run doesn’t have to be finished, just some visible progress and the feeling that the effort was worthwhile by July 1, 2026.

https://manifold.markets/TonyBaloney/should-just-chill-and-not-make-a-do?r=VG9ueUJhbG9uZXk

Decision rule:

On January 15, 2026, I’ll compare this market with its linked twin — “Should I not make a dog run?” Whichever has the higher probability moves forward, the other is resolved N/A.

If this one wins, I’ll do my best to get a dog run going in my neighborhood.

Cash prize:

If this market does not resolve N/A, I’ll record all YES and NO holders on January 15, 2026, and randomly select one winner, weighted by share ownership (e.g., 50 % of shares = 50 % chance).

The winner gets $100 via Venmo or Zelle. (There will be a reroll if the winner is unavailable or declines).

(Reminder: Mana is cheap play money. You might as well swing for the rafters the increase your odds of winning USD.)

Notes:

• I won’t bet myself.

• I’m happy to answer questions.