Description:

This market predicts whether I’ll later decide it was worth it not to try to start a dog run in my neighborhood.

I live in Arlington, Virginia, near Quincy Park. There are tons of dogs around, but no dog run within walking distance. By July 1st, 2026, I’ll look back and judge whether doing nothing felt like the right call, whether avoiding the effort saved me time, stress, or regret.

Decision rule:

On January 15, 2026, I’ll compare this market with its linked twin — “Should I make a dog run?” Whichever has the higher probability will move forward:

If this one wins, I won’t take steps to start a dog run in 2026.

The losing market will be marked resolved N/A.

https://manifold.markets/TonyBaloney/should-i-make-a-dog-run-cash-prizes?r=VG9ueUJhbG9uZXk

Cash prize:

If this market does not resolve N/A, I’ll record all YES and NO holders on January 15, 2026, and randomly select one winner, weighted by share ownership (50 % of shares = 50 % chance).

The winner gets $100 via Venmo (I’ll reroll if the winner is unavailable or declines the money.)

(Reminder: Mana is cheap play money. You might as well swing for the rafters the increase your odds of winning USD.)

Notes:

• I won’t bet myself.

• I’m happy to answer questions.