Description:
This market predicts whether I’ll later decide it was worth it to try starting a dog run in my neighborhood.
I live in Arlington, Virginia, near Quincy Park. There are tons of dogs around, but no dog run within walking distance. The run doesn’t have to be finished, just some visible progress and the feeling that the effort was worthwhile by July 1, 2026.
https://manifold.markets/TonyBaloney/should-just-chill-and-not-make-a-do?r=VG9ueUJhbG9uZXk
Decision rule:
On January 15, 2026, I’ll compare this market with its linked twin — “Should I not make a dog run?” Whichever has the higher probability moves forward, the other is resolved N/A.
If this one wins, I’ll do my best to get a dog run going in my neighborhood.
Cash prize:
If this market does not resolve N/A, I’ll record all YES and NO holders on January 15, 2026, and randomly select one winner, weighted by share ownership (e.g., 50 % of shares = 50 % chance).
The winner gets $100 via Venmo or Zelle. (There will be a reroll if the winner is unavailable or declines).
(Reminder: Mana is cheap play money. You might as well swing for the rafters to increase your odds of winning USD.)
Notes:
• I won’t bet myself.
• I’m happy to answer questions.
Update 2026-01-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The $100 cash prize winner will be @realDonaldTrump if this market resolves YES (instead of the originally described random selection weighted by share ownership).
Update 2026-01-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If this market resolves NO, @HenriThunberg will receive the $100 cash prize (instead of the random selection process described in the original rules).
1,000People are also trading
@traders I have a new market for what I should do to make this dog run happen.
https://manifold.markets/TonyBaloney/what-actions-will-i-take-to-improve
@TonyBaloney your random number is: 524
Salt: qkknze2rqgf, round: 5769716 (signature b1545a9b81cc0b71b653b190d5b2762ce28d0568c0128e0bbd46dc51d6421180f7cc9d6472c6a06b361af30b8ce33188081941939e4f5fc80bbc8123def907eef55b1e44d5eb2ade10453f87f848f05d31d3f1e6bc6cc46bff9088f6cb5cfbfd)
@TonyBaloney you asked for a random integer between 1 and 742, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 5769714 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5769716, salt: qkknze2rqgf.
@TonyBaloney your random number is: 229
Salt: f8tlvj4uyow, round: 5769711 (signature b73587ff294f0e3ef348c1e2af0f16754dee31ce2de3aeac0f19dfe758fd8a6fe003e7f0750ac73375a0f07d47e05e1f011e15e1bcd6dc6142fd79c72a5638b944fe97c7c7dc4398178b7c485d1063723da1657b3884f8ce444a9ee93072c98e)
@TonyBaloney you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2947, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 5769709 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5769711, salt: f8tlvj4uyow.
Ok. This market goes forward. I might as we decide who gets the prize now. I’ll do it on fairly random I guess. There are 2946 shares for YES and 742 for NO. I’ll stack them in order of shares and then ask fairly random for a number. So for instance. Donald Trum has the most yes shares, so if the number is 1990, he’ll win if it’s YES. If the random number is 2946, NSM_2000 will win with their 1 share. Same for the no said.
@TonyBaloney waittt
the random number has to be exactly 1990? or I get one "lottery entry" for each share i own