I made a website that pairs news stories with related Manifold markets, so you can read the news alongside what traders think might happen:
It works, mostly. I was surprised that ChatGPT just sort of did this for me based on an exploratory question. I tweaked it a couple of times, but that's it. There are definitely things that are still janky and suboptimal, but I like it enough that I spent ten bucks on a URL.
Will I still think this was worth doing three months from now?
This resolves YES if, around January 20, 2027, I look at the project and feel glad I set it up. Things that would count toward that include:
I’m still using it regularly myself.
I’m still interested enough to try to make it better.
It has regular readership of more than 100 people a day.
Someone improves it, builds upon it, or steals the idea completely.
A couple of people tell me it’s a good idea, and I feel like it was worth putting out there.
These are examples, not a checklist. I don’t need all of them, and 100 daily readers is not a requirement. If nobody else reads it but I use it all the time, that could easily be a YES.
This resolves NO if, in three months, I’m not using it regularly and my general feeling is, “Why the hell did I spend ten bucks on a URL for that stupid site?”
Essentially, this is a vibes-based market on my future opinion of my own project. I’ll resolve it honestly, but you are betting on my subjective judgment.
I won't bet on this market.
1,000